The stock market has already chosen a winner in the 2024 presidential election
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator:
When Democratic President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the former president and presumptive Republican nominee, square off in November, it will be the third straight quadrennial election with Trump at the top of the GOP ticket. – AFP/Getty Image
The U.S. stock market is one of the best predictors of whether the incumbent party will win a presidential election.
That’s important to know because of the widely mixed messages of the electronic prediction markets, to which many until now have turned to get reliable predictions. Many fans of those markets have of late become disillusioned by these mixed messages. For example, a survey of a handful of the best-known prediction markets earlier this week revealed that, depending on your focus, the probability that President Joe Biden will win re-election currently ranges from below 38% to a high of 76%. That’s so wide a range that it’s difficult to place much weight on any of the predictions.
What about other economic, financial and sentiment indicators? To find out, I analyzed the U.S. stock market, the economy as measured by real GDP, the Conference Board’s consumer-confidence index and the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment survey. In each case, I focused on their year-to-date changes as of Election Day. Only one — the stock market — was significantly correlated with the incumbent party’s chance of winning (at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when deciding if a pattern is genuine).
What I found is summarized in the chart below. To construct it, I segregated all presidential elections since the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA was established in 1896 into four equal-sized groups based on its year-to-date return on Election Day. As you can see, the probabilities of the incumbent party retaining the White House grow in lockstep with year-to-date performance.
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Based on the historical correlations and the Dow’s year-to-date price-only gain of 5.6%, Biden’s chances of winning re-election are 58.8%. Those odds will rise if the stock market gains more between now and Election Day, and fall if the market declines.
Even if the electronic prediction markets weren’t sending such mixed messages, it would be hard to show that their track records are better than the stock market’s. That’s because, without a large sample, it’s very difficult for a pattern to meet traditional standards of statistical significance. The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), one of the oldest such instruments, began in 1988, for example. So its track record encompasses just nine presidential elections.
James Carville, former President Bill Clinton’s influential strategist during the 1992 election, famously said, “It’s the economy, stupid.” He used the line to remind Clinton’s campaign staff that all other issues pale in comparison to the economy as a determinant of whether the incumbent party retains the White House. Perhaps we should modify Carville’s line to “It’s the stock market, stupid.”
Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at .
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HomeSubseaFinland-Estonia interconnector down again ensuing from wretchedness, international ship’s position below investigation
December 26, 2024,
by
Nadja Skopljak
The Finnish authorities are investigating the unexpected energy outage at the Estlink 2 interconnector between Finland and Estonia that occurred the day prior to this, December 25, the country’s High Minister Petteri Orpo said.
Source: Fingrid
Finland’s transmission system operator (TSO) Fingrid reported to the authorities the that you simply can per chance presumably recall to mind failure of the electricity cable on Wednesday afternoon, prompting an immediate investigation into the chain of events of the incidents as effectively as whether or no longer a international cargo ship is serious relating to the wretchedness.
The investigation is being implemented with the Estonian TSO Elering and the authorities.
The transmission hyperlink is out of service for the time being, with the repair plight to delivery up as quickly because the fault space has been identified. Fingrid infamous that the failure of the corrupt-border electricity transmission hyperlink failed to endanger the operation of the electricity system in Finland, the electricity system is functioning customarily and electricity reliability is at the moment honest.
At the time of the failure, 650 MW of electricity changed into transferred from Finland to Estonia.
Suomen ja Viron välinen Estlink 2-sähkönsiirtoyhteys on pudonnut iltapäivällä verkosta. Viranomaiset ovat joulunakin hereillä ja selvittävät asiaa. Siirtoyhteyden katkeaminen ei vaikuta suomalaisten sähkönsaantiin.
Estlink 2, officially launched in 2014 with a skill of 650 MW, is 170 kilometers long, of which 145 kilometers is submarine cable, 14 kilometers overhead on the Finnish facet and 12 kilometers underground in Estonia.
Fingrid is anticipated to give more details on the growth of the investigation this afternoon.
👀Finland/Estonian undersea cable has been within the discount of on Christmas. The Estlink Two is 1 of 2 cables connecting the Baltic energy grid to Finland.🇨🇳ship Xin Xin Tiang crossed the cable at midday native time. Right here’s the third time that a Chinese language ship is suspected of involvement in cable within the discount of pic.twitter.com/qPahmSUum1
Right here’s no longer the first time Estlink 2 changed into shut down this twelve months. Namely, the hyperlink changed into shut down within the first hour of January 26 ensuing from a fault positioned in “a geotechnically annoying condominium” on the Estonian flee which kept it out of operation till August 31.
A few months later, Elering reported that a fault had additionally been detected within the first electrical connection between the 2 international locations. Estlink 1 changed into out of service ensuing from a technical fault at the converter plight in Espoo. The electrical connection changed into switched off at 4:26 a.m. on March 9 on the Finnish facet, whereas the energy cable remained intact. Operational since 2006, the hyperlink has a skill of 350 MW.
The two TSOs signed a memorandum in June 2022 agreeing to delivery up work on the establishment of Estlink 3. This summer Estonia’s Consumer Safety and Technical Regulatory Authority (CPTRA) initiated the building permit scheme for what’s going to be the third electricity connection between Estonia and Finland.
One at a time, the Finnish police is unexcited investigating wretchedness precipitated closing twelve months to the Balticconnector gas pipeline linking the 2 international locations, as effectively as several telecom cables, said to most likely were precipitated by a ship dragging its anchor.
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Multidomain attacks are on the verge of becoming a digital epidemic as nation-states and nicely-funded cybercrime attack groups survey to cash in on large gaps in digital estates’ defenses. Enterprises are having to deal with widening – and usually unknown – gaps between enterprise sources, apps, systems, recordsdata, identities and endpoints.
The lickety-split-rising tempo of attacks is riding a graph database fingers bustle across leading cybersecurity companies. Microsoft‘s Security Publicity Administration Platform (MSEM) at Ignite 2024 displays how fleet the fingers bustle is maturing and why its containment requires more progressed platforms.
“Three years ago, we had been seeing 567 password-connected attacks per 2d. As of late, that number has skyrocketed to 7,000 per 2d. This represents a broad escalation in the scale, tempo and class of contemporary cyber threats, underscoring the urgency for proactive and unified security methods,” Vasu Sakkal, Microsoft’s company vp of security, compliance, identity, management and privacy, urged VentureBeat at some level of a latest interview.
Microsoft goes all-in on their security vision at Ignite 2024
With every group experiencing more multidomain intrusion makes an try and tormented by undiscovered breaches, Microsoft is doubling down on security, pivoting its technique to graph-basically based completely defense in MSEM. Sakkal urged VentureBeat, “The sophistication, scale, and tempo of contemporary attacks require a generational shift in security. Graph databases and generative AI provide defenders the tools to unify fragmented insights into actionable intelligence.”
Cristian Rodriguez, CrowdStrike’s Americas Field CTO, echoed the importance of graph expertise in a latest interview with VentureBeat. “Graph databases allow us to arrangement adversary behavior across domains, identifying the subtle connections and patterns attackers exploit. By visualizing these relationships, defenders attach the contextual perception wished to seem forward to and disrupt complex, inferior-domain attack methods,” Rodriguez talked about.
Key announcements from Ignite 2024 encompass:
Microsoft Security Publicity Administration Platform (MSEM). At the core of Microsoft’s technique, MSEM leverages graph expertise to dynamically arrangement relationships across digital estates, in conjunction with gadgets, identities and recordsdata. MSEM attend for graph databases permits security groups to identify excessive-agonize attack paths and prioritize proactive remediation efforts.
Zero Day Quest. Microsoft is offering $4M in rewards to tell vulnerabilities in AI and cloud platforms. This initiative aims to compile researchers, engineers and AI red groups to take care of serious dangers preemptively.
Dwelling windows Resiliency Initiative. Specializing in zero belief principles, this initiative appears to be like to be to enhance machine reliability and recovery by securing credentials, imposing Zero Belief DNS protocols and fortifying Dwelling windows 11 against rising threats.
Security Copilot Enhancements. Microsoft claims that Security Copilot’s generative AI capabilities increase SOC operations by automating risk detection, streamlining incident triage and decreasing indicate time to resolution by 30%. Built-in with Entra, Intune, Purview and Defender, these updates present actionable insights, helping security groups tackle threats with bigger effectivity and accuracy.
Updates in Microsoft Purview. Purview’s progressed Knowledge Security Posture Administration (DSPM) tools form out generative AI dangers by discovering, protecting and governing handsome recordsdata in exact-time. Parts encompass detecting prompt injections, mitigating recordsdata misuse and combating oversharing in AI apps. The applying also strengthens compliance with AI governance requirements, aligning enterprise security with evolving guidelines.
Why now? The feature of graph databases in cybersecurity
John Lambert, company vp for Microsoft Security Be taught, underscored the serious importance of graph-basically based completely making an allowance for in cybersecurity, explaining to VentureBeat, “Defenders mediate in lists, cyberattackers mediate in graphs. As lengthy as this is correct, attackers ranking.”
He added that Microsoft’s technique to publicity management involves creating a comprehensive graph of the digital property, covering vulnerabilities, risk intelligence and attack paths. “It’s about giving defenders a full arrangement of their atmosphere, allowing them to prioritize the most serious dangers whereas working out the aptitude blast radius of any compromise,” Lambert added.
Graph databases are gathering momentum as an architectural technique for cybersecurity platforms. They excel at visualizing and inspecting interconnected recordsdata, which is serious for identifying attack paths in exact time.
Key advantages of graph databases encompass:
Relational Context: Draw relationships between sources and vulnerabilities.
Mercurial Querying: Traverse billions of nodes in milliseconds.
Chance Detection: Name excessive-agonize attack paths, decreasing false positives.
Knowledge Discovery: Consume graph AI for insights into interconnected dangers.
Behavioral Diagnosis: Graphs detect subtle attack patterns across domains.
Scalability: Integrate contemporary recordsdata functions seamlessly into current risk units.
Multidimensional Diagnosis:
The Gartner warmth arrangement underscores how graph databases excel in cybersecurity exercise cases cherish anomaly detection, monitoring and decision-making, positioning them as wanted tools in contemporary defense methods.
“Emerging Tech: Optimize Chance Detection With Knowledge Graph Databases,” Also can honest 2024. Source: Gartner
What makes Microsoft’s MSEM platform outlandish
The Microsoft Security Publicity Administration Platform (MSEM) differentiates itself from varied graph database-pushed cybersecurity platforms by its exact-time visibility and agonize management, which helps security operations heart groups preserve it up high of dangers, threats, incidents and breaches.
Sakkal urged VentureBeat, “MSEM bridges the outlet between detection and movement, empowering defenders to seem forward to and mitigate threats effectively.” The platform exemplifies Microsoft’s vision of a unified, graph-pushed security approach, offering organizations the tools to preserve sooner than contemporary threats with precision and tempo.
Built on graph-powered insights, MSEM integrates three core capabilities wished to war support against multi-domain attacks and fragmented security recordsdata. They encompass:
Attack Floor Administration. MSEM is designed to create a dynamic glimpse of a company’s digital property, enabling the identification of sources, interdependencies and vulnerabilities. Parts cherish automatic discovery of IoT/OT gadgets and unprotected endpoints safe particular visibility whereas prioritizing excessive-agonize areas. The applying inventory dashboard categorizes sources by criticality, helping security groups level of curiosity on the most urgent threats with precision.
Source: Microsoft
Attack Course Diagnosis. MSEM uses graph databases to arrangement attack paths from an adversary’s level of view, pinpointing serious routes they’ll exploit. Enhanced with AI-pushed graph modeling, it identifies excessive-agonize pathways across hybrid environments, in conjunction with on-premises, cloud and IoT systems.
Unified Publicity Insights. Microsoft also designed MSEM to translate technical recordsdata into actionable intelligence for both security professionals and industry chief personas. It helps ransomware protection, SaaS security, and IoT agonize management, guaranteeing focused, insightful recordsdata is supplied to security analysts.
Microsoft also announced the following MSEM enhancements at Ignite 2024:
Third-Birthday party Integrations: MSEM connects with Rapid7, Tenable and Qualys, broadening its visibility and making it a extremely efficient application for hybrid environments.
AI-Powered Graph Modeling: Detects hidden vulnerabilities and performs progressed risk path prognosis for proactive agonize reduction.
Historical Traits and Metrics: This application tracks shifts in publicity over time, helping groups adapt to evolving threats confidently.
Graph databases’ growing feature in cybersecurity
Graph databases own proven handy in tracking and defeating multi-domain attacks. They excel at visualizing and inspecting interconnected recordsdata in exact time, enabling quicker and more factual risk detection, attack path prognosis and agonize prioritization. It’s no shock that graph database expertise dominates the roadmaps of leading cybersecurity platform companies.
Cisco’s SecureX Chance Response is one example. The Cisco platform extends the utility of graph databases into network-centric environments, connecting recordsdata across endpoints, IoT gadgets and hybrid networks. Key strengths encompass an integrated incident response that’s integrated across the Cisco suite of apps and tools and network-centric visibility.”What we want to build is safe particular that we exercise AI natively for defenses since you are going to now not scramble out and fight these AI weaponization attacks from adversaries at a human scale. Or now not it’s some distance extremely predominant build it at machine scale,” Jeetu Patel, Cisco’s executive vp and CPO, urged VentureBeat in an interview earlier this one year.
CrowdStrike’s Chance Graph became as soon as presented at their annual buyer match, Fal.Con in 2022 and is mostly cited as an illustration of the vitality of graph databases in endpoint security. Processing over 2.5 trillion day-to-day events, Chance Graph excels in detecting dilapidated signals and mapping adversary behavior. Rodriguez emphasised to VentureBeat, “Our graph capabilities safe particular precision by specializing in endpoint telemetry, offering defenders with actionable insights quicker than ever.” CrowdStrike’s key differentiators encompass endpoint precision in tracking lateral movements and identifying anomalous behaviors. Chance Graph also helps behavioral prognosis dilapidated on AI to tell adversary tactics across workloads.
Palo Alto Networks (Cortex XDR), SentinelOne (Singularity) and Pattern Micro are among the many valuable gamers leveraging graph databases to enhance their risk detection and exact-time anomaly prognosis capabilities. Gartner predicted in the latest research demonstrate Emerging Tech: Optimize Chance Detection With Knowledge Graph Databases that their fashioned adoption will continue due to their ability to attend AI-pushed insights and decrease noise in security operations.
Graph databases will rework enterprise defense
Microsoft’s Lambert encapsulated the industry’s trajectory by stating, “Also can honest the most easy attack graph ranking. Graph databases are reworking how defenders mediate interconnected dangers,” underscoring their pivotal feature in contemporary cybersecurity methods.
Multi-domain attacks target the weaknesses between and inner complex digital estates. Discovering gaps in identity management is an net site nation-articulate attackers be unsleeping of and mine recordsdata to access the core enterprise systems of a company. Microsoft joins Cisco, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, SentinelOne and Pattern Micro, enabling and persevering with to pork up graph database expertise to identify and act on threats sooner than a breach occurs.
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