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The U.S. stock market is one of the best predictors of whether the incumbent party will win a presidential election.

That’s important to know because of the widely mixed messages of the electronic prediction markets, to which many until now have turned to get reliable predictions. Many fans of those markets have of late become disillusioned by these mixed messages. For example, a survey of a handful of the best-known prediction markets earlier this week revealed that, depending on your focus, the probability that President Joe Biden will win re-election currently ranges from below 38% to a high of 76%. That’s so wide a range that it’s difficult to place much weight on any of the predictions.

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What about other economic, financial and sentiment indicators? To find out, I analyzed the U.S. stock market, the economy as measured by real GDP, the Conference Board’s consumer-confidence index and the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment survey. In each case, I focused on their year-to-date changes as of Election Day. Only one — the stock market — was significantly correlated with the incumbent party’s chance of winning (at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when deciding if a pattern is genuine).

What I found is summarized in the chart below. To construct it, I segregated all presidential elections since the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA was established in 1896 into four equal-sized groups based on its year-to-date return on Election Day. As you can see, the probabilities of the incumbent party retaining the White House grow in lockstep with year-to-date performance.

Based on the historical correlations and the Dow’s year-to-date price-only gain of 5.6%, Biden’s chances of winning re-election are 58.8%. Those odds will rise if the stock market gains more between now and Election Day, and fall if the market declines.

Even if the electronic prediction markets weren’t sending such mixed messages, it would be hard to show that their track records are better than the stock market’s. That’s because, without a large sample, it’s very difficult for a pattern to meet traditional standards of statistical significance. The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), one of the oldest such instruments, began in 1988, for example. So its track record encompasses just nine presidential elections.

James Carville, former President Bill Clinton’s influential strategist during the 1992 election, famously said, “It’s the economy, stupid.” He used the line to remind Clinton’s campaign staff that all other issues pale in comparison to the economy as a determinant of whether the incumbent party retains the White House. Perhaps we should modify Carville’s line to “It’s the stock market, stupid.”

Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at .

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DETROIT (AP) — Amazon’s self-driving robotaxi unit is being investigated by the U.S. government’s highway safety agency after two of its vehicles braked suddenly and were rear-ended by motorcyclists.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said in documents posted on its website Monday it will evaluate the automated driving system developed by Zoox.

Both crashes involved Toyota Highlander SUVs with autonomous driving technology. They happened during daytime hours, and the agency confirmed that each of the Amazon vehicles was operating in autonomous mode leading up to the crashes. In one crash a motorcyclist suffered minor injuries, and a Zoox driver reported minor injuries in the other, according to reports. Both happened last month, one in San Francisco and the other in Spring Valley, Nevada.

The agency said the probe will focus on the performance of the company’s automated driving system during the crashes, as well as how it behaves in crosswalks around pedestrians and other vulnerable road users.

In a statement, Zoox said it is committed to working with NHTSA to answer its questions. “Transparency and collaboration with regulators is of utmost importance,” the company said. Zoox said the vehicles had human safety drivers on board.

Zoox reported the crashes under an order to automated vehicle companies issued in 2021.

Amazon acquired Zoox in June of 2020 for a price that analysts pegged at over $1 billion. In 2023 the Foster City, California, company said one of its funky-looking four-person shuttles autonomously carried employees on public roads on a mile-long (1.6 kilometer) route between two Zoox buildings.

The company has launched a shuttle service exclusively for its employees. Analysts say they expect Amazon to use the Zoox system for autonomous deliveries.

Zoox shuttles don’t have a steering wheel or pedals. The carriage-style interior of the vehicle has two benches that face each other. It measures just under 12 feet (3.7 meters) long, about a foot (a third of a meter) shorter than a standard Mini Cooper. It is capable of going up to 75 mph (121 kilometers per hour), although it started running on public roads at up to 35 mph, the company said.

Zoox already was under investigation by NHTSA. In March of 2022 the agency began looking into the company’s certification that its vehicle met federal safety standards for motor vehicles.

The agency said at the time that it would look into whether Zoox used its own test procedures to determine that certain federal standards weren’t applicable because of the robotaxi’s unique configuration.