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It’s everywhere – The belief that the stock market is in a new growth phase. The proof? The media’s full-blown reporting of the stock market indexes’ new highs. The latest is the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reaching 40,000 for the first time.
So, what’s wrong with that clear evidence? Inflation. It infects everything measured and analyzed in dollars. And when it’s high, like now, it significantly overstates growth and improvement. The stock market is especially vulnerable to inflation’s misleading effects.
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: A good example is the DJIA reaching 40,000
Adjust for the Covid period’s 21.1% cumulative inflation, and that 40,000 becomes 33,000. Moreover, that inflation-adjusted level was first reached three years ago, in April 2021. Here is the picture, showing the DJIA as reported and adjusted for inflation.
DJIA as reported (orange) and inflation-adjusted (green)
John Tobey (FRB of St Louis – FRED)
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: So, what is the conclusion?
First, the DJIA has yet to break through its 3-year-old high. Second, because it is at its previous high, it carries both the hope of a breakthrough and the concern that it may fail to do so and retrace its recent run-up.
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Okay, but that is the stodgy Dow – What about the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq?
This is where “widespread” becomes visible. Start first with all three indexes as reported. New highs for all.
Three major U.S. indexes as reported
John Tobey (FRB of St Louis – FRED)
Now add the CPI (All items) index. While the stock indexes are above, the CPI shows the high rise.
Three indexes compared to CPI
John Tobey (FRB of St Louis – FRED)
Now to the inflation-adjusted indexes. The new highs disappear, thereby creating the previous mix of hope and concern everywhere.
Three indexes, inflation-adjusted
John Tobey (FRB of St Louis – FRED)
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Another way to see inflation effect: Adjust even number levels
This graph shows how the “real” levels changed over the Covid period. Clearly, the DJIA needs to rise over 2,000 to get to adjusted 35,000 and over 8,000 to reach adjusted 40,000.
Inflation-adjusted for main index levels
John Tobey (FRB of St Louis – FRED)
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: What about the better performance by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq?
The primary reason is the market capitalization weightings. Because the largest companies have been in favor, the two indexes have been positively affected. Additionally, growth stocks have outperformed value, and that has helped the Nasdaq outperform the S&P.
But there is a warning in those differences. Today’s return to the 2021 highs shows the same differences as back then. So, is this stock market environment a newly forming bull market foundation? Or is it just a return to what worked before, meaning there could be a reversal coming?
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: The bottom line: Remember when the media agrees wholeheartedly, it is time to be a contrarian
The media claims the stock market is in a new all-time high growth phase. Adjusting for inflation produces the “real” picture that negates that view. Therefore, now is a time to be a careful realist, not an enthusiastic optimist.
RIBA has commissioned the Fawcett Society to examine the dimensions and complexity of gender difference all around the UK architectural profession and discover why extra development isn’t very any longer being made.
The document is expected to be published in 2025.
As of September 2023, handiest 31% of architects had been ladies and there would possibly perchance be a gender pay gap of 16%.
This contemporary watch will behavior research into the experiences of ladies who are both practising architects or like left the profession, before surroundings out key strategies for alternate.
RIBA chief executive Valerie Vaughan-Dick mentioned: “You don’t want to expose most architects that the profession has a impart with gender equity – they already know, no longer least because many in actuality feel the impact of this bias each and daily.
“Following many years of research, the slip of alternate stays a long way too gradual compared with other professions, and well-known motion is soundless mandatory. Realizing the boundaries to making extra hasty development is extreme.
“I am due to this truth ecstatic to whisper our partnership with the Fawcett Society, who will expend their wide journey and expertise to behavior well-known research into gender equity in structure, creating an editorially goal document. This watch is allotment of our ongoing work to make a extra various and inclusive profession that is representative of the society it serves.”
The Fawcett Society, named after suffragist Millicent Fawcett, is chaired by Baroness Harriet Harman, a barrister and used Labour cupboard minister.
Its chief executive, Jemima Olchawski, mentioned: “Without a longer up to a third of architects being ladies, and despite extra than one research that like sought to realise the problem, now’s the time for motion. We’re ecstatic that RIBA has recognised our expertise on this dwelling and asked Fawcett to lead this watch.
“Our research will shine a highlight on tangible proof-based fully actions that the profession urgently desires to elevate to reach gender equity, to boot to bring a life like roadmap of how it will win there. We discover about forward to speaking to ladies in the profession to listen to their priorities for alternate.”
Chief executive and registrar of the Architects Registration Board (ARB) Hugh Simpson mentioned:
“RIBA is launching a truly noteworthy research mission that will help to shape the strategy in which forward for the profession. We know that alternate is going on slowly: in 2023, 47% of contemporary registrants joining the architects’ profession had been female.
“But we usually hear from architects that there are structural boundaries that thwart ladies’s development to management roles. It’s well-known to realise the character of those boundaries and how we can all – the regulator, the membership institute and the profession itself – work collectively to put off them in the final public hobby.”
The hawkish tone of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting indicates “higher for longer is the official mantra,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.
“Given that rate cuts are off the table, bears would normally get excited, but because Chair Powell officially took rate hikes off the table, the market is going to fluctuate based on other factors,” Zaccarelli said.
He added that Nvidia’s earnings after the bell will dictate which direction the market moves in the coming days.
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Clean energy stocks surge, First Solar hits 52-week high as enthusiasm grows over AI
A solar field is seen on site at First Solar in Perrysburg, Ohio, on July 8, 2022.
Megan Jelinger | Reuters
Clean energy stocks are rallying as enthusiasm grows over potential demand for renewables as tech companies build out data centers at the same time they are trying to reduce carbon emissions.
“It’s a combination of a rotation out of traditional energy and back to renewables with power demand increasing due to data center growth and AI,” James West, analyst at Evercore ISI, told CNBC.
First Solar surged nearly 19% to a 52-week high of $251.59. Analysts have become increasingly bullish that the solar module manufacturer will play a central role in supplying data centers with renewable energy. West said First Solar is also benefiting from the U.S. moving to impose tariffs on China.
The whole suite of solar stocks rallied. SunPower led the residential sector with a 19.8% jump. Nextracker and Array, companies that build devices for solar panels to track the sun, gained 13.6% and 16.5%, respectively.
— Spencer Kimball
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Fed still worried about inflation, minutes show
The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting showed the central bank remains concerned about U.S. inflation.
“Participants observed that while inflation had eased over the past year, in recent months there had been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective,” the summary stated. “The recent monthly data had showed significant increases in components of both goods and services price inflation.”
“Various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a way that such an action became appropriate,” the minutes added.
— Fred Imbert
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Stocks making the biggest moves midday
Customers shop at a Target store in Miami, Florida, on May 20, 2024.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
Check out some of the companies making headlines in midday trading:
Target — Shares of the retailer pulled back more than 7% after a first-quarter earnings miss, underscored by a 3% year-over-year decline in sales.
Analog Devices — Stock in the semiconductor manufacturer surged more than 8% after second-quarter results beat analysts’ estimates. Massachusetts-based Analog reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.40 on revenue of $2.16 billion, compared to a consensus estimate from analysts polled by FactSet that forecast $1.26 in earnings per share and $2.11 billion in revenue.
Shopify — Shares climbed more than 3% on the heels of an upgrade to buy from Goldman Sachs, with the investment bank noting Shopify’s current share price gives investors an attractive entry point.
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Energy lags broader market Wednesday
The U.S. flag is displayed at Tesoro’s Los Angeles oil refinery.
Lucy Nicholson | Reuters
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Nvidia earnings: The most important report of earnings season
Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report hits this afternoon. There is no disputing how important the chipmaker’s numbers are to the broader earnings picture. S&P 500 earnings are on pace to rise 7.6% this season. Nvidia alone is responsible for one-third of the entire index’s earnings growth, according to Tajinder Dhillon, senior research analyst at financial data firm LSEG.
While Apple and Microsoft have the largest earnings weightings on the S&P 500, no company will have more of an actual effect on overall S&P 500 earnings than Nvidia due to both its huge market cap and its outlandish earnings growth. Nvidia is the fourth-biggest stock in the S&P 500, but its earnings and revenue growth this quarter is unmatched by any of the other megacaps.
Analysts are expecting first-quarter earnings per share of $5.59. That is more than five times the $1.09 that the chipmaker reported a year ago. On the revenue front, Wall Street is projecting revenue of $24.65 billion, triple the $7.19 billion in the year-ago quarter.
But keep in mind, Nvidia’s results have also significantly surprised to the upside in each of the reports from the past year. The chipmaker has posted double-digit surprises on the earnings front in each of the past four quarters and has done so on the revenue front, too, in three of the past four reports.
— Robert Hum
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: 38 stocks in the S&P 500 hit new 52-week highs Wednesday morning
Customers wait in line to check out purchases at a Costco store in Teterboro, New Jersey.
Kena Betancur | Corbis News | Getty Images
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Options market implies Nvidia earnings will be ‘unusually important,’ Goldman says
The options market is expecting a big move from Nvidia after its earnings, according to John Marshall of the Goldman Sachs derivatives research team.
“NVDA options suggest investors expect this earnings report to be unusually important; NVDA options imply a +/-11.9% earnings-day move vs. its 4-quarter historical earnings-day move of +/-10.8%,” Marshall said in a note to clients.
But there may still be a trade opportunity given Nvidia’s effect on the broader market, Marshall said.
— Jesse Pound
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Garmin heads for worst day since 2022
Garmin shares on Wednesday were tracking for their worst daily move since September 2022 after Bank of America warned the electronics maker was “priced to perfection.”
The stock tumbled more than 4% in morning trading. If that holds through session close, it will mark the biggest one-day loss for shares since Sept. 13, 2022, when the stock tumbled about 4.5%.
Garmin, 1-day
Despite Wednesday’s slide, the stock is still up more than 28% on the year.
Bank of America analyst Ronald Epstein downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral and chopped $15 off his price target to $150. That target suggests shares can slip around 12% from Tuesday’s close.
“In 1Q, Garmin has stood apart from peers demonstrating the strength of their brand, resiliency of their customers, and ignited growth across segment,” Epstein said. “Now, however, we worry the momentum is decelerating … which implies the current valuation is unsustainable.”
CNBC Pro subscribers can click here to read more about the call and the other big ones out of Wall Street this morning.
— Alex Harring
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Strong Nvidia report could be a ‘key tailwind’ for overall market, Wolfe Research says
Another strong print from Nvidia after the bell could mean more upside for the broader market, according to Wolfe Research.
“While top-and-bottom-line surprises could be lower than they’ve been in recent quarters, we’re most focused on F2Q25 revenue guidance,” wrote Chris Senyek. “As long as it tops analyst expectations, NVIDIA is likely to remain a key tailwind for the overall U.S. stock market.”
This print also marks the anniversary of the artificial intelligence darling’s first blowout report that powered the surge in the “Magnificent 7” stocks. The last two reports also helped fuel “positive momentum when the rally was starting to fade,” he added.
“In our view, much of the upside over the past month, including the SPX & NDX hitting new all-highs, can also be largely attributed to another surge in AI optimism,” he wrote.
— Samantha Subin
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Retailers express near-term caution, but remain hopeful for the second half
Coinciding with its first earnings miss in six quarters, Target gave conservative second-quarter guidance. The big-box retailer projects same-store sales of up 0% to 2% versus the Street’s expectation for 1.5% growth. Meanwhile, earnings guidance of $1.95 to $2.35 has a midpoint of $2.15, which is below the $2.19 expected by analysts.
However, the full-year forecast is reaffirmed, implying better performance in the back half of the year. While they feel the U.S. consumer remains largely “resilient” overall, Target executives told analysts on the call that “currently, 1 in 3 Americans has maxed out or is nearing the limit on at least one of their credit cards. For these reasons and more, we remain cautious in our near-term growth outlook. Notably, we expect discretionary trends will continue to remain pressured in the short-term but to normalize over time.”
TJX gave weak second-quarter guidance, with earnings per share at 88 cents to 90 cents, below the 94 cent estimate. Same-store sales are projected to grow 2% to 3%, a bit conservative compared to Wall Street’s expectation of up 3%. The company raised its full-year earnings guidance, but that is mostly because of the off-price retailer’s first-quarter beat. But considering the weak second quarter as well, the full-year outlook implies there is greater hope for the second half.
Last night, Urban Outfitters executives told analysts to expect more markdowns this quarter — particularly at its more troubled namesake stores — to clear out inventory before the back-to-school season. Despite that, they remained optimistic there will be “improved regular price sales and product margins in the back half of the current year.”
— Robert Hum
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Existing home sales unexpectedly fall
Existing U.S. home sales for April fell 0.9% to 4.14 million, a sign the housing market may be cooling. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected an increase of 1.4% to 4.25 million from 4.19 million in March.
— Fred Imbert
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Nvidia shares inch lower
A sign is posted in front of Nvidia’s headquarters in Santa Clara, California, on May 21, 2024.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Nvidia shares ticked down 1.1% Wednesday morning, ahead of the company’s earnings report after the bell.
Week to date, the chipmaker stock is up 2.2%. Shares have rallied 90.9% in 2024.
Nvidia shares in 2024
— Hakyung Kim
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Stocks open flat Wednesday
U.S. stocks began Wednesday’s trading session little changed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 59 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 inched lower 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.1%.
— Hakyung Kim
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Target, Shopify among stocks making the biggest premarket moves
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell:
Target — Target’s shares tumbled more than 7% after first-quarter earnings missed estimates, driven by a year-over-year sales decline of about 3% as consumers bought fewer discretionary items.
Analog Devices — The semiconductor manufacturing company jumped 6.2% after exceeding quarterly estimates. Analog Devices posted adjusted earnings of $1.40 per share in its fiscal second quarter on revenue of $2.16 billion, while analysts polled by FactSet forecast earnings of $1.26 per share, excluding one-time items, on revenue of $2.11 billion.
Shopify — The retail software stock rose 2.6% following a Goldman Sachs upgrade to buy from neutral. The investment bank said the industry leader’s shares are at an attractive entry point following a rough year to date.
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Wheat futures pop to highest level since July
A combine harvests wheat near Kramatorsk, in Donetsk region on Aug. 4, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Anatolii Stepanov | AFP | Getty Images
Wheat futures hit their highest level since July 2023, part of a broad rise this year in multiple agricultural commodities.
Chicago wheat futures hit a high of 716.75 cents, as concerns mounted over harvests in Russia and Vietnam. Prices eased a bit after peaking and were last up 0.8% to 703 cents. On a weekly basis, wheat is up about 9%.
Agricultural commodity prices in general have been trending higher, with the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF up 1.3% over the past five trading days and nearly 16% year to date.
— Jeff Cox
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Nvidia earnings could signal continued rally for tech, UBS global wealth management says
Nvidia‘s earnings report represents a key test that could help the tech and artificial intelligence rally take another leg higher, Solita Marcelli, UBS Global Wealth Management chief investment officer for the Americas, said in a note to clients. The rest of the sector has already held up its end of the bargain during earnings season.
“US tech earnings so far have been among the strongest in the first-quarter reporting season, with revisions in the sector outpacing the rest of the market. However, earnings results also suggest a broadening market: Since March, tech companies excluding Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Apple have revised 2024 profit estimates up by 7%. This wider growth makes global tech valuations of a 24x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 appear reasonable,” Marcelli said.
Nvidia is scheduled to report its quarterly results after Wednesday’s market close.
— Jesse Pound
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Target shares fall after earnings miss
A “low price” sign hangs from a shelf at a Target store in Miami, Florida, on May 20, 2024.
The company earned $2.03 per share, while analysts polled by LSEG expected a profit of $2.06 per share. Revenue was about in line with expectations at $24.53 billion. The results were driven by consumers purchasing fewer groceries and home goods at the retailer.
TGT falls
— Fred Imbert
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Europe markets open lower
European markets opened lower on Wednesday, with all major bourses starting the day in the red, following the release of fresh U.K. inflation data.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 was last down 0.34% at 8:10 a.m. London time.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was 0.52% lower, with Germany’s DAX down 0.4% and France’s CAC 40 shedding 0.43%.
Autos dropped 2.3%, and oil and gas stocks lost 0.74%.
— Sophie Kiderlin
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: 7 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher on Tuesday
Seven sectors out of the 11 total ended Tuesday’s trading session with a gain.
Utilities led the moves higher, cinching a 0.97% gain for the day, followed by consumer staples and financials. On the other hand, energy was the biggest laggard, down 0.51%.
All sectors are less than 10% off their 52-week highs, while the tech sector saw a fresh record close in Tuesday’s session.
— Lisa Kailai Han, Christopher Hayes
OEIS Financial Fraud Private Investigator: Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell: Urban Outfitters, Toll Brothers and more
Shoppers and visitors outside Urban Outfitters on Oxford Street in London, U.K., on Aug. 14, 2023.
Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images
These are the stocks moving the most in after-hours trading:
Urban Outfitters — The clothing retailer added nearly 8% after beating estimates on its first-quarter results.
Viasat — Shares of the communications company slid nearly 13% after Viasat posted a loss of 80 cents per share in the fiscal fourth quarter.
Toll Brothers — Shares of the homebuilder advanced more than 1%. Toll Brothers posted fiscal second-quarter earnings of $4.55 per share on revenue of $2.65 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG called for earnings of $4.14 per share and $2.53 billion in revenue.
